It's All Going To Change

Exponential is gonna make this world of humans very very different.

What the fuck is "exponential change" Mike?

I, you, and all humans are built to see change in a linear way. A wolf accelerating at a set rate is going to slowly catch us, but we know when, and therefore where (see how clever we are), so we get tricksy and make plans to not be there and then, hah, take that wolf!

The wolf starts out at 1 kmh, but speeds up at 2 kmh. It's now at 3 kmh, but hang on it's still getting faster, now at 5 kmh. Christ this wolf is still going, 7 kmh. Meh, we can run at 10 kmh. It adds another 2 kmh, ok, it's catching up. 9 kmh, we're starting to worry and make plans. Wow, the wolf is now 11 kmh, probably a blur but s'ok as it is slower than a bike so maybe we use that. Oh noes, another 2 kmh, that's 13 kmh. A spurt from the wolf and it's now 15 kmh, and one more boost, up to 17 kmh.

Within only 9 steps this damn wolf is now running at us at 17 kmh. We're done.

That's how we all see "getting faster" we can predict that wolf and we can outwit it, "At that speed you'll be at X by Y, I won't be. Or I'll get a sharp stick and be ready for you, hah!"

Exponential though is, weird.

It's not adding a set rate to how fast that wolf is going, oh no, it's maths. That wolf is doing something freaking weird, it's doubling (or tripling, or whatever) it's pace.

Exponential wolf sees us, starts running at 1 kmh, dumb wolf. Then doubles it. 2 kmh, dumb wolf. Then doubles it, jeez, 4 kmh, dumb wolf. Doubles it, 8 kmh, not just dumb wolf but boring wolf. Doubles it, 16 kmh, doubles it 32 kmh, doubles it 64 kmh. WTF, that wolf is, in 6 steps now going faster than a fast thing. Faster than we are. Wolf eats human.

Imagine you can run at 100 kmh. Linear wolf takes around 49 steps to get you, exponential wolf takes a mere 6 steps.

Wolves don't work like this Mike. No, they don't, and thankfully neither does much in nature. This linear world is what we know, what we stepped out of the ooze into, and how we know everything to be.

Technology, the stuff we invented is exponential. Machines are exponential wolves. Everything we create are exponential wolves with accelerating change.

AI is an exponential wolf, AI That Can Invent AI Is Coming. Buckle Up

One thing that you can be sure of: while they won’t acknowledge it publicly, leading frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic are taking the possibility of automated AI researchers very seriously and are already devoting real resources to pursue the concept. 

[..] 

If the pace of AI progress feels disorientingly fast now, imagine what it will feel like once millions of automated AI researchers are deployed 24/7 to push forward the frontiers of the field. What breakthroughs might soon become possible in the life sciences, in robotics, in materials science, in the fight against climate change? What unanticipated risks to human well-being might emerge?

What? 🤯

Bring back the wolves Mike, I was just starting to understand that, or, if you're not into wolves how about all the rice in the world on a chess board?

Or folding a single piece of paper to get to the moon:


All of it seems, weird, like it's just some sort of maths brain made-up thing ... but it's real AND we are experiencing it with AI.

Today AI is travelling like a wolf at 3 kmh, tomorrow at 6 kmh ... in a small number of months it is faster than we can imagine. Won't happen? Maybe not, it might rush VERY fast into a barrier, maybe we are heading exponentially down a dead end ... might be, but I'm sure the AI that we end up with will be able to guide us out and continue the exponential change. 

Buckle up indeed.

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