How Long Could Aotearoa New Zealand Survive Being Cut Off?

A drunken and wrong argument from me with a patient and honest mate left me thinking, "How long could Aotearoa New Zealand actually last if the boats, planes, and Internet couldn't arrive?"

Let's imagine Aotearoa New Zealand suddenly and unexpectedly cut off from the rest of the world, you can choose your disaster of choice, limited nuclear war (global and we're all fucked anyway), a massive weather something, zombie outbreak overseas, or Winston Peters drops his trousers and does a dump on the main UN Assemble table  and no-one wants to play with us anymore. The reason isn't important but what is, suddenly and for the foreseeable future, is that we are no longer connected - the event has happened!

Note: I don't have access to any insider information that say the Government hopefully has, so this is all gonna be a bit 'finger in the sky' using stuff I find on the Web and it'll be an exercise in averages, "sort of"s and even my own reckons. 

With that all in mind let's all go on an apocalyptic adventure ...

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Food

How much of our food is imported, how many days of imported food do we have stockpiled?

Wow, if you're a meat eater then sweet ... for a while:

“Practically everything we consume is imported, directly or indirectly,” he says. “The meat we consume is not imported, but a lot of the machinery we use to extract it is imported.”

[source: What happens to NZ after global nuclear war breaks out?]

Aha, the machinery of vast food production would be the issue, not necessarily straight away but over time. By the way in New Zealand, 56% of the land is privately owned. Of that, 3.3% is owned by foreigners and 6.7% is owned by Māori. The remaining 28% of the country is owned by the public.

[source: New Zealand's biggest 50 landowners revealed (2019)]

Fruit & Veggies

Now, of course, you can and we all would, dig up the front lawn and start growing as much of our veggies as possible. Kiwis are pretty adept at growing stuff ... mostly, if you don't live in an urban environment, where around 84% of us do (as at June 2023). We won't be whinging about the 4,500 commercial fruit and vegetable growers after "the event" eh!

I really don't think we'll suffer in the long run, NZ will get it sorted.

Initially however, as that last squishy tomato is grabbed off the shelf, we might really struggle.

Meat

Well, we ain't selling any of it overseas ... but how much is "it"? In 2023, the main commodity groups for New Zealand's meat exports were: 

• Frozen bovine meat: 44% of the total 
• Fresh, chilled, or frozen sheep or goat meat: 42% of the total 
• Fresh or chilled bovine meat: 6.1% of the total 
• Edible offal: 3.9% of the total 

New Zealand exports almost 95% of its lamb and mutton, and 88% of its beef and veal.

[source: New Zealand, Imports and Exports, Meat and edible meat offal]

Without going into details, we are gonna be fine for meat IF those cow, sheep, and goat farmers are willing to keep doing what they do ... for no export dollars. I suspect they'll not have a choice and/or want to stop.

Don't forget those machines that take the cow and turn it into meat you can eat, if they start breaking down it seems we'll be a bit stuffed. Butchers will be back in force though, and other Kiwis will work on making replacement parts (do we have metal we can use?) and fixing-up stuff.

Oh, and assuming we can actually keep the power going for our freezers then I think, after the initial bump, we'd be ok for food BUT

“In New Zealand right now, we produce way too much milk and too little of anything else,” he says. “To stop trade tomorrow and have enough food, there would be an adjustment period that would be incredibly painful.”

[source: What happens to NZ after global nuclear war breaks out?]

It's probably that we can produce enough food that has billionaire doomsday preppers buying up land in AoNZ ... of course they will have to be already here when "the Event" happens (grrr Peters and his tabletop shit).

Drink

Water, we'll be drinking a lot of water ... especially once the tea and coffee run out.

I suspect everything else will become niche and local once the supply chains deplete. Maybe you live in Motueka and know the local brewer for your beer, or in Foxton for their Fizz. These people are gonna be fine for a while until, you got it, their equipment starts to fall apart.

Shelter

We don't have enough houses for everyone already, so after the cut off what would that mean?

Look, we're ALWAYS gonna need new places as people are gonna have babies and if they leave home they need their own place. Maybe that will change, perhaps families will start to live in the same house more and for longer.

Also, houses break, just through existing they are gonna deteriorate and need fixing up. That's not to factor in major weather events, earthquakes, and accidental fuckups.

All of this needs people that can build houses, which tbh I think New Zealand has, and can grow.

These skilled house builders though are gonna need materials and that means a lot of wood. Wahay, we have wood coming out of our hills, we grow forests of the stuff and we currently harvest around 32.9 million cubic metres of wood each year. Whilst we export 23 million cubic metres of it we won't after "the Event" and all of that is staying in the motu as there ain't no ships taking it away.

[source: Exports of logs and wood from New Zealand]

Harvesting wood is fine if we have the power for the machines to chop them down, cart them away, and turn them into building materials. If not, it becomes a very local affair and we'll be competing with farmers for their land to grow trees instead of meat and veggies. This is gonna need some serious coordination before the guns come out.

New Zealand imports a large proportion of its building materials, with China and Australia being the main sources. In 2021, New Zealand imported around $3 billion worth of building and construction materials, which is about 7–8% of all imports

[source: New Zealand Building and Construction]

There's more than just timber in houses:

• Frame: Precut or pre-nailed timber is used for 92% of wall framing in New Zealand. 
• Windows: Double glazed aluminum windows are commonly used. 
• Roofing: Fiberglass insulation is often used for the roof. 
• Door: An aluminum residential front door is commonly used. 
• Brick: Brick is commonly used for the cavity. 
• Driveways and paths: Concrete driveways and paths. 
• Interior finishes: Paint, flooring, and kitchen and bathroom fixtures.

Most of this comes from out there, places we'll go longer have access to after "the Event".

Clothing & Shoes

Unless we're all gonna be 100% wearing Cactus clothing we are fucked, initially.

New Zealand makes so little of it's own clothing, or anything else material-based (sheets, carpets, curtains, or any other material malarkey) that it would struggle to support NZ. We don't have many factories, machines, skills, or infrastructure - and this is getting less not more.

We imported just under a $1 billion worth of "non-knit clothes and clothing accessories" in 2023, and about the same for "knitted or crocheted", and less for your leather boots and belts.

[sources: New Zealand imports of non-knit clothes and clothing accessories | knitted or crocheted clothes and clothing accessories | leather items, saddlery and harness, bags, and animal gut items]

 

Say goodbye to your Nikes, wave away your thoughts of the latest [INSERT OVERSEAS BRAND HERE] top, and absolutely love and cherish your Crocs because those are your last ones.

New Zealand's clothing industry is expected to make $4.57 billion in revenue in 2024, with a projected annual growth rate of 3.96%. The industry is also expected to see a volume growth of 1.6% in 2025, and a total volume of 312 million pieces by 2029.  

The clothing industry [..] employs 76,000 people, and pays out $4.4 billion in wages annually.  

However, the number of people employed in the local apparel manufacturing industry has been declining:

• 1970s: 110,000 workers
• 2000: 19,879 workers
• 2023: 9,566 workers  

Some areas of expertise, like suit manufacturing and textile production, have all but died out. However, a small number of designers and people are still trying to preserve local manufacturing

[source: Google Search Labs | AI Overview, "how much clothing can nz make"]

I can't find any figures on how much clothing is exported, is it all, some, none?

There's a nugget of an industry eh, it would flourish, basic at first and then we would have a very distinct Aotearoa New Zealand fashion sense and clothing that we want. I'd like this actually, bring on "the event".

Oh, one last thought

New Zealand throws away around 180,000 tonnes of clothing and textile waste in landfills each year, which is equivalent to 6,429 shipping containers.

[source: The dark side of fast fashion]

We won't be doing that, will we!

Petrol, Power & Gas

We'll need to power our machines, electricity for our lights, factories, and gadgets. If we want to move things around without resorting to horsepower we'll still need put go-go juice in the trucks, cars, trains, and planes.

It seems to be the wear and tear on our power grid would be the problem as we don't have the parts to maintain it:

“It was once estimated that New Zealand could not keep its electrical grid operating for very long due to lack of parts and expertise to repair it,” says Brian Toon. “I suspect that times would be very difficult in New Zealand.”

[source: What happens to NZ after global nuclear war breaks out?]

Since the policy package was announced, the Fuel Industry (Improving Fuel Resilience) Amendment Act 2023 has been passed. The Act provides for the minimum fuel stockholding obligation. 

Fuel importers with the right to draw fuel from bulk storage facilities in New Zealand must hold at least 28 days’ cover for petrol, 24 days’ cover for jet fuel, and 21 days’ cover for diesel on average from 1 January 2025. The minimum stockholding levels are based on estimates of the national average commercial stockholding levels.

[source: Fuel security in New Zealand]

At least we'll be ok for a month or so ... and this is commercial, I have no idea what the military have, probably not too much tbh.

New Zealand did have one oil refinery, the Marsden Point Oil Refinery, but its refining capability was closed in 2021 and is now an import only facility. As for gas, there are 2,600 kilometres of high-pressure natural gas transmission pipelines in the North Island and the Maui pipeline, a 307 km pipeline that carries 78% of all natural gas produced in New Zealand.

[source: Oil and gas industry in New Zealand]

Gas, we're sorted.

Oil, well we all know we have some oil reserves offshore and in "the Event" we'll be glad of Shane Jones, but seeing as "the Event" is so unlikely as to be mythical we can still give him shit. Unless he knows something we don't, what do you know Shane, what are you hiding from us, #JustAskingTheQuestion

The interesting thing is not the reserves, but the means to get at it and use it.

The international companies will no longer have access to it or the equipment so I assume we just use that, assuming we have the skills and, as always, the means to repair it all when needed.

Electricity ... surely we can power ourselves with the electrickery?

Approximately 44% of primary energy (heat and power) is from renewable energy sources in New Zealand. Approximately 87% of electricity comes from renewable energy, primarily hydropower and geothermal power.

[source: Renewable energy in New Zealand]

Studies have shown that it is technically feasible to provide 100% of the electricity demand by renewable power without risking with shortages in energy supply.

International consumption of energy (calendar year 2014)	Oil products (tonnes per person)	Gas (m³ per person)	Electricity (kWh per person)
Norway	1.58	1,200	24,621
Canada	1.86	3,065	17,026
USA	1.93	2,384	13,734
Australia	1.83	1,727	11,028
New Zealand	1.25	1,207	9,802

[source: Energy in New Zealand: International comparisons]

10-year-old data though, this is more up to date and fascinating: Energy Production and Consumption.

We'd make a mad dash to renewable energy supply ... somehow!

Health

Among other things, that study also pointed to the danger in losing access to pharmaceuticals, most of which were imported from the Northern Hemisphere at the time. Medical and pharmaceutical products still represent a large share of our imports today.

[source: What happens to NZ after global nuclear war breaks out?]

Shit, hadn't thought about the illnesses we'll still need to tackle, the accidents to be sorted, and the diseases to be battled. I s'pose we'll not have to worry about importing new viruses but I'm sure there's enough to be going on with with what we already have.

I thought all medicines and drugs were imported into New Zealand but:

Approximately 55 companies in New Zealand are estimated to be engaged in the production of pharmaceuticals or their ingredients. The high cost of developing and bringing a drug to market, compounded by the scarcity of capital in NZ, has led to the industry sector being in a stagnant state, and declining over the long term.

[source: New Zealand - Pharmaceuticals]

As for hospitals and doctors surgeries we definitely have the skills but need more, which we could grow.

But what about those machines that go ping, what happens when they break and ping no more?

Staying In Touch

No Netflix. No Internet at all. We have been cut off from the world's communication systems.

I assume we don't actually have any satellites of our own so we're not using those to get the message out, a message of, "Hah, we're fine suckers!"

Talking of the Internet, I don't know if our internal connections would still work. Yes we have cables and wires physically connecting our towns and cities, we run our own telecommunication backbone via Chorus and other smaller players. Would they still work (assuming power etc)?  Could we hack the systems (DNS for instance) to make sure servers know where to send the packets inside NZ? How much is the Internet built upon having an ability to route through other countries and networks? No, your Google.NZ search is never gonna work, it's just not hosted here (ie, their machines that do the work are physically outside of NZ).

Famously the Internet was designed to route around broken connections, however:

[Vint] Cerf, however, quickly added that the Internet was not immune to nuclear attack. If there is no path the routers can use to get data to locations on a given path, Internet access will disappear for anyone connected to that path.

[source: "Will the Internet Survive?"]

I s'pose our old style phone network would, for those with such equipment, still operate and we could still make calls to each other - but do you have such a phone connected to a copper wire? Is there even copper wire around?

Also, the mobile network would still exist, but does it need to be connected out to the world to still operate? Does our mobile network assume external connections and not fall over because it can't check a number against, say, an Australian central hub? This would all be software run so, assuming the right skillet and ability to hack into hardware, I'm thinking we could quite quickly be able to stay in touch with each other inside the motu.

Society

Money stuff

Apparently for a society to function it needs the basics of food, shelter, and clothing (see above) as having these gives any society control over its environment. A society needs a functioning economy to provide this.

Be it physical or Internet things we're just not doing exports any more! Beyond our borders there's just the void.

Can any society of any size survive within its own economy, no outside connections whatsoever, has it ever been done before? North Korea, nope it's got diplomatic relations with 150+ states, including New Zealand, sort of. In history there's also been Japanese sakoku, Ming China's Haijin, the Soviet Union (sort of), Myanmar, and Eritrea.

A friend also mentioned the Amish, maybe they could give us some hints for a long time disconnected society. After some research though it appears not to be quite true:

The Amish aren’t anti technology. They just want to try and limit its effect and impact on their daily lives. There is no central authority figure in the Amish so each community has different rules about what technology is acceptable. If a technology is found to be beneficial they will adopt it if not they won’t. Most Amish speak Pennsylvania Dutch which is an archaic dialect of German but they do learn English in school and can speak it fluently. The idea that they have no interaction with the outside world simply isn’t true.

[source: Are Amish people really disconnected from society?]

Seems those Amish that are not disconnected but operate 'distantly' whilst still utilising external tech (mobile phones, electricity, transport, etc) as they see fit AND when it does not compromise their faith.

Living together

All societies must provide:

1. Food, shelter, and clothing,
2. collective goals of some sort for its members to aspire society, and
3. a legal system that mediates conflict and protects the social system from breaking down.

What follows can only be speculation on my part as it's hard enough to state how New Zealand society is changing right now let alone through some made up event in the future. 

“One of the results of studies of disasters is that people behave rationally, are generous and communities pull together,” he says. Rather than crisis spurring on panic, violence and hatred, in other words, it could create the opposite outcome. It’s tough to say exactly what would happen to New Zealand in the aftermath of nuclear war, since there has been little to no scientific study of the subject.

[source: What happens to NZ after global nuclear war breaks out?]

We were once a team of 5 million fighting COVID, and even the naysayers acknowledged the difference in people during that time, friendly, helpful, connected. However, it seems hard working, middle New Zealanders are definitely unhappy with how society is going, according to Ipsos, whoever they are. All levels of NZ class are living in very interesting times, that's for sure.

Slowly, almost imperceptibly, New Zealand society is changing before our eyes. Despite being the last land mass to be inhabited by humans, we are now one of the most ethnically diverse. And despite priding ourselves on our egalitarian society, the gap between rich and poor is growing faster in Aotearoa than in almost any other country in the OECD. Our cities are thriving, the regions are declining, and almost as nothing is as it seems.

[source: Our New Society]

I think there will, much like COVID, be three stages that individuals, communities, and our whole society will go through, the details will of course be related what the nature of "the Event" actually is, a Peters poo will demand a different response to an impact from space.

1: Initial shock

I believe the initial response will be to make sure Kiwis are safe.

How we do that for the 100,000+ New Zealand residents that are travelling overseas (mid-March 2020 numbers)? What about the approximately 600,000 - 1,000,000 Kiwis living overseas ... I have no idea, we are cut off.

[source: About 100,000 New Zealand residents travelling overseas]

A lot of government activity will happen, emergency management plans will kick off, national plans to preserve our reserves will be put into action, and we will try our best to unlock the void, somehow.

It will be the weirdest of times, but we will survive it despite the multitude of voices, from blame, to celebration, to absolute disbelief. We will survive it.

2: On-going survival

Ok, this is the bit I am least sure about. I don't know how long this looks, a few months, maybe a few years. Society is probably going to go through a stack of changes, rules and regulations will be brought in, changed, dumped, and forgotten.

It might get violent, society might decide it's every person for themselves and put up Mad Max-esque barriers around their petrol stations. I don't think that will happen but I see, as we all can, a sector of New Zealand that would use "the Event" as a chance to splinter everyone and take control. Would the two main islands, Te Ika-a-Māui and Te Waipounamu, see themselves as one country or split, what does it mean for the Chatham Islands. It could be a turbulent time.

Or maybe not, perhaps we would, as New Zealanders often have in the past, pull together, roll up the sleeves and just get on with it. Would that Maori ethic of self preservation, that Colonial settler attitude of #8 wire, that alleged 1950s community spirit, and our youth's demand for equality all combine and kick in?

I honestly don't know. We would all need food, shelter, and clothing no matter what happens.

We may, as some have suggested, return to a pre-World War I society with a lot of hard work, basic manual technology, and subsistence living. Again, some may revel in this, some may not.

3: Settling into being just us

As the world fights "the Event" we have been left for decades to fend for ourselves. I don't know what it would like, but I do know Aotearoa New Zealand would be a flower opening anew.

Can We Prepare?

Should we even bother? If we don't know what "the Event" actually is how can we prepare, well we can start looking at the things listed above and wondering what we need to do now to ensure we will get through.

Here's a list from Public Health Communication Aotearoa (I've removed a few "policy" options):

NZ has a chance to both survive and sustain a thriving hub of complexity through nuclear winter. With promising baseline conditions, there is an argument NZ has an obligation to humanity to maximise its chances. This could be achieved by undertaking the following:

• Make a detailed local study of food production and distribution under nuclear winter and zero trade/scarce fuel conditions, as well as manage marine stocks to ensure surplus in times of need.
• Research and prepare communication materials and plans, with redundancies, collaborate with the public and generate a shared mental model.
• Incentivise distributed renewable energy sources, electric vehicle uptake, cycle infrastructure, home insulation, and reduce oil dependence, while maintaining refining capability until zero-oil reached.
• Conduct simulations/walk-throughs of critical functions such as restoring systems after an EMP, or storing, rationing, and distributing food, fuel, medicines.
• Reduce reliance on Northern Hemisphere export markets by diversifying regionally – particularly with Australia, the Pacific and Southeast Asia.
• Study the potential irreplaceable failure points of NZ industry and crowdsource solutions and workarounds, eg, 3D printing.
• Model the co-benefits of resilience measures against nuclear winter on climate targets, inequality, health, the economy.
• Include nuclear war, nuclear winter, and NZ trade isolation in national risk assessments and make public NZ’s national risk register (the contents of which are currently classified).

That's my own highlight, and it's interesting to know the Government does indeed have insights and plans for when "the Event" happens, oooh how I would love to read that.

---

Further Reading

• Sustained Resilience: the impact of nuclear war on New Zealand and how to mitigate catastrophe by Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson, 12 April 2022,
• Wikipedia: Economy of New Zealand
• Climate change and possible impacts for New Zealand
• Other societal changes driving loneliness
• Recommendations to improve social cohesion and New Zealand’s response to our increasingly diverse population
• Political values - Story by Stephen Levine, published 20 June 2012
• The dawn raids: causes, impacts and legacy
• Would any country in the world survive in a real and practical scenario, if its contact with the rest of the world is cut off?
• The Amish And Their Long Struggle With The Modern World